Probabilistic Forecasting Tool

Monte Carlo for Teams: Stop guessing. Start forecasting with probabilities.

50% Confidence
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85% Confidence
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95% Confidence
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Forecast Distribution (10,000 simulations)

Awaiting Simulation...
How this works: Deterministic plans assume a fixed delivery date. This simulation randomly samples from your historical throughput to simulate the delivery of your remaining scope 10,000 times. Scope Growth models the reality of "scope creep" by adding new items to the backlog during every simulated period. The result is a probability curve showing the likelihood of finishing within a specific timeframe. The 85th percentile is typically considered the "sweet spot" for making professional commitments.

Probabilistic Forecasting Tool

Welcome! Deterministic plans assume a fixed delivery date. This simulation randomly samples from your historical throughput to simulate the delivery of your remaining scope 10,000 times, creating a probability curve.

What this illustrates

  • The Fallacy of Averages: Why planning with "average velocity" guarantees you will be late approximately 50% of the time.
  • Scope Creep Impact: How continuous discovery and scope growth compound to push delivery dates further out.
  • Confidence Levels: Using the 85th percentile to make professional commitments that you can actually keep.

How to use the simulator

  • Enter Data: Provide a few recent sprints or weeks of historical throughput.
  • Define Scope: Input how much work remains and how fast scope is growing.
  • Forecast: Run the 10,000 trials to see the statistical probability of landing on any given date.