Pivot or Persevere Simulator

Buy knowledge cheaply and defer commitment until the last responsible moment.

Idea #{{ state.ideaCount }}: {{ state.currentIdeaName }} Validated

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Data Confidence (Knowledge)
{{ Math.floor(state.knowledge) }}%
{{ knowledgeLevelText }}
Represents the reliability of your data. Low confidence means a high chance of false positive signals.
Perceived Market Fit
{{ perceivedFitText }}
{{ perceivedFitAdvice }}
Target: 80%+ for a successful launch. Launching below 80% burns your capital.
True Market Fit (Hidden)
{{ Math.round(state.trueFit) }}%

Action History

No actions taken yet. Run an experiment or take a blind leap with a Big Bang launch!
Week {{ log.week }} - ${{ log.cost.toLocaleString() }}

{{ state.gameWon ? '🏆 2-Year Run Complete!' : '💀 Simulation Lost!' }}

Pivot or Persevere Simulator

Welcome! This simulation models the economic tradeoffs of product discovery. It illustrates why buying knowledge early and cheaply is better than taking a "blind leap" based on gut feeling.

What this illustrates

  • The Cost of Certainty: Every experiment costs time and money, but dramatically increases your confidence in the idea's true market fit.
  • False Positives: In highly uncertain markets, early data can be misleading. Be careful not to scale based on a single good signal.
  • The Power of Pivoting: Recognizing a bad idea early and pivoting saves massive amounts of capital compared to launching a failure.

How to use the simulator

  • Run Experiments: Choose actions from cheap internal reviews to expensive private betas to uncover the true market fit.
  • Pivot or Persevere: Decide when to abandon a failing idea or when to go all-in and launch the product.
  • Survive 2 Years: Your goal is to maximize your valuation before your budget or runway runs out.